Orientation · Article 6 of 60
Why open outnumbers graded
Most of the ledger is a clock that has not run out. That is not a defect.
A prediction becomes gradeable only when two things are true: it has a horizon that has passed, and evidence exists that settles it. Both conditions are rare. The result is that the graded column is small and the open column is large, and any presentation that reversed the ratio would be lying about the state of the world.
The alternative — grading early, on vibes, at the moment a claim starts to look either clever or foolish — is how prediction ledgers become entertainment. The ledger waits.
No score before a horizon elapsesThis is the promise on the front page, and it is the one rule that would be easiest to break for a better-looking chart.
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.