Orientation · Article 5 of 60
How a horizon is written
Four kinds of deadline, and the honesty of an open-ended one.
A horizon is the part of a prediction that makes it a promise. The ledger stores four kinds: an exact date, a range, a named deadline, and open. The last one is not a failure of editing; it is a record of what the speaker actually said.
Where a person gave no date, the ledger says so rather than inventing a generous window. A claim with no horizon can still be discussed, but it can never be graded, and the counts keep it out of the graded column permanently.
| Kind | What it means | Can it be graded? |
|---|---|---|
| Exact | A single named date | Yes |
| Range | A window with two ends | Yes, at the far end |
| Deadline | A stated cut-off without a calendar date | Only if the cut-off is written down |
| Open | No date offered | No |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.