Orientation · Article 7 of 60
The citation floor
One document is a quotation. Two documents is a fact about what was said.
Every cited record carries at least one source. The interesting number is how many carry a second one, because a single source establishes that a sentence exists, while a second source establishes that the sentence was not an artefact of a transcript, a caption or a wire report's compression.
The ledger does not require two. It does count them, so a reader can see how much of the collection would survive the loss of one document.
| Claims | |
|---|---|
| Backed by two or more sources | 54 |
| Backed by exactly one source | 9 |
| Editorial summaries with no quotation and no citation | 177 |
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“Within the next 24 months, the majority of companies won’t just consume artificial intelligence. They will become AI builders, customizing, controlling, and running their own models.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Clément Delangue — Miami AI Summit, 2026-10-24</span></div> | By October 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I would hope we have the candidate for that in the next couple of years for the first like really major thing.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Sam Altman — Interview with Matthew Berman, 2026-10-21</span></div> | By October 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“It’s soon. I’m updating nearer and nearer.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Demis Hassabis — WSJ Magazine profile, 2026-10-21</span></div> | 2028 – 2029 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Every three months of deployment delay can cost about $10 billion in revenue.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jensen Huang — GTC Berlin keynote, 2026-10-20</span></div> | Late 2020s | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.