Time & horizons · Article 33 of 60

What a deadline means

A date is a promise with a witness. Almost nothing else in a prediction is as useful.

The word 'by' does a lot of work. It converts an opinion into a test, and it is the first thing an honest ledger looks for. Where a speaker says 'by 2027', the ledger stores 2027 and starts a clock.

Where the speaker says 'soon' or 'within a generation', the record keeps the words and refuses the clock. The difference between those two treatments is the whole method.

A horizon is the only part of a prediction that can be wrong on a specific day.The Prediction Ledger, methodology

Read the methodology The dated claims

Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.