Time & horizons · Article 32 of 60
The oldest records still running
Sentences that have been in the ledger longer than most of its readers.
Some claims were recorded years before the current snapshot and remain unresolved. They are the archive's memory, and the reason a reading today is not the same as a reading in 2025.
Ordered by the day the words were said, the earliest cited records show how quickly the questions moved and how slowly the answers arrived.
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“An LM is a system for haphazardly stitching together sequences of linguistic forms it has observed in its vast training data, according to probabilistic information about how they…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Emily M. Bender — “On the Dangers of Stochastic Parrots” (FAccT 2021), 2021-03-01</span></div> | Standing claim | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“Our goal is to solve the core technical challenges of superintelligence alignment in four years.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jan Leike — OpenAI, “Introducing Superalignment”; co-led with Ilya Sutskever, 2023-07-05</span></div> | By July 2027 | <span class="verdict" data-v="missed">Missed</span> |
| <div><em>“My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Elon Musk — Interview with Nicolai Tangen, “In Good Company”, 2024-04-08</span></div> | End of 2025 | <span class="verdict" data-v="missed">Missed</span> |
| <div><em>“For the majority of businesses, focus on building applications using agentic workflows rather than solely scaling traditional AI. That’s where the greatest opportunity lies.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Andrew Ng — Snowflake Summit, Luminary Talk, 2024-06-03</span></div> | Standing claim | <span class="verdict" data-v="partial">Partly borne out</span> |
| <div><em>“Artificial superintelligence will be 10,000 times smarter than a human brain and will exist by 2035.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Masayoshi Son — SoftBank World / Future Investment Initiative remarks, 2024-06-21</span></div> | AGI 2027–2029 · ASI by 2035 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“AI x-risk forecasts are far too unreliable to be useful for policy, and in fact highly misleading.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Arvind Narayanan — AI Snake Oil essay with Sayash Kapoor, 2024-07-26</span></div> | Standing methodological claim | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Sam Altman — Essay, “The Intelligence Age”, 2024-09-23</span></div> | 2027 – 2035 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I think it could come as early as 2026, though there are also ways it could take much longer.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Dario Amodei — Essay, “Machines of Loving Grace”, 2024-10-11</span></div> | 2026 – 2027 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.