Worked examples · Article 51 of 60
Worked example: Vance and the 2028 capex
A majority-of-spending claim that will be settled by somebody's annual report.
The claim that more than half of the roughly $700 billion spent on AI in 2028 would be invested in the United States names a metric, a year and a direction. That combination is rare and valuable.
What is missing is the accounting standard. Whether it holds will depend on how investment is attributed, which is exactly the kind of detail a verdict note exists to record.
JD Vance
Vice President · The White House
Open-weight models are a check on concentrated power, and the state has an interest in protecting them.
1 claims recorded · 0 graded · 1 still open
Photograph: Daniel Torok / The White House — Public domain (17 U.S.C. §105)
“Of the $700 billion, give or take, that's estimated to be spent on AI in 2028, over half of it will likely be invested in the United States of America.”
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“Going forward, people will have to think about the value-add at the application level.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Robin Li (Li Yanhong) — TIME interview; Baidu World remarks, 2026-08-04</span></div> | Through the decade | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“We’re now expecting that by 2030 the AI accelerator market is going to reach about 1.4 trillion by 2030.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Lisa Su — AMD Advancing AI 2026 keynote, 2026-07-23</span></div> | By 2030 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“In the Data Center alone, we expect the AI accelerator TAM will grow at more than 60% annually to $500 billion in 2028.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Lisa Su — AMD Q3 2024 earnings call, 2024-10-29</span></div> | By 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“The capital required to stay at the frontier will keep rising faster than revenue, so financing is the real roadmap.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Sarah Friar — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Enterprise demand, not consumer novelty, will decide which labs survive the decade.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Krishna Rao — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.