Worked examples · Article 50 of 60
Worked example: Lagarde and the productivity estimate
A conditional forecast quoted with its condition still attached.
The European Central Bank's estimate that AI could add around a third to four tenths of a percentage point to euro-area productivity growth is explicitly conditional on swift and broad adoption. Strip the condition and the number becomes a promise; keep it, and it is a scenario.
The ledger keeps it. The verdict note says whose estimate it is and what would have to happen for it to hold.
Christine Lagarde
President · European Central Bank
Productivity from AI will show up in wages before it shows up in prices.
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Photograph: Lemrich / European Central Bank — Attribution — © European Union
“ECB staff estimate that AI could raise euro area productivity growth by around 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points per year over the next decade under a scenario of swift and broad adoption. Under slower adoption, the estimated effect would be roughly half the size.”
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.