Evidence · Article 36 of 60

The two-document rule

How much of the ledger would survive the loss of one source.

Snapshot 2026-10-25 240 claims 138 citations 209 people

A citation is a promise that someone else can check the sentence. A second citation is a promise that the sentence does not depend on a single transcript's punctuation, a single wire service's compression, or a single press office's edit.

The ledger counts both. The gap between them is a rough measure of how much of the collection is anchored rather than merely attested.

reporting71
primary37
analysis22
data4
transcript4
Citations by source kind, counted across all claims.
Claims
Backed by two or more sources54
Backed by exactly one source9
Editorial summaries with no quotation and no citation177
A claim with one document is a quotation; a claim with two is a fact about what was said.
ClaimHorizonVerdict
<div><em>“Within the next 24 months, the majority of companies won’t just consume artificial intelligence. They will become AI builders, customizing, controlling, and running their own models.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Clément Delangue — Miami AI Summit, 2026-10-24</span></div>By October 2028<span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span>
<div><em>“I would hope we have the candidate for that in the next couple of years for the first like really major thing.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Sam Altman — Interview with Matthew Berman, 2026-10-21</span></div>By October 2028<span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span>
<div><em>“It’s soon. I’m updating nearer and nearer.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Demis Hassabis — WSJ Magazine profile, 2026-10-21</span></div>2028 – 2029<span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span>
<div><em>“Every three months of deployment delay can cost about $10 billion in revenue.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jensen Huang — GTC Berlin keynote, 2026-10-20</span></div>Late 2020s<span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span>
<div><em>“AI will come to feel more trustworthy—and it will remove the tells that let readers know they’re encountering AI slop in the wild.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Arvind Narayanan — Fortune interview on journalism and AI, 2026-10-06</span></div>Open-ended, near term<span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span>
Each record's sources are listed in the ledger, with a note saying what the document establishes.

Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.