Time & horizons · Article 27 of 60

The spread of horizons

When the ledger's clocks are set to go off.

Horizons cluster in the near future, for the ordinary reason that the near future is where reputations are still being made. The tail is thin and long, and it is where the genuinely ambitious claims live.

The distribution is also a warning: a dataset weighted toward short horizons will look accurate for a few years and then quietly expire.

Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.