Time & horizons · Article 28 of 60
The long fuses
Claims that will outlive the people who will be asked to grade them.
A handful of records run for decades. They are the easiest to write and the hardest to settle, because whoever grades them will be reading a document about a world that no longer exists.
The ledger keeps them anyway. A ledger that only held five-year claims would be a trading desk, not an archive.
| Person | Said on | Due | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Hinton | 2024-12-27 | 2054-12-27 | 10957 |
| Geoffrey Hinton | 2025-08-13 | 2045-08-13 | 7305 |
| Masayoshi Son | 2024-06-21 | 2035-12-31 | 4210 |
| Sam Altman | 2024-09-23 | 2035-08-16 | 3979 |
| Christine Lagarde | 2026-09-28 | 2036-12-31 | 3747 |
| Yang Zhilin (Zhilin Yang) | 2026-08-27 | 2036-08-27 | 3653 |
| Demis Hassabis | 2025-03-17 | 2035-03-17 | 3652 |
| Demis Hassabis | 2025-06-04 | 2035-01-01 | 3498 |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.