Time & horizons · Article 31 of 60
Claims without a clock
The open-ended majority, and what to do with it.
A claim with no date is not useless. It tells you what someone wanted to be true, and how they chose to say it when nobody was asking for a deadline. But it cannot be scored, and the ledger says so instead of assigning a convenient window.
The open-ended set is where the collection's biases show. It is also where the most quotable sentences are, which is not a coincidence.
Undated
199
Dated
41
Graded
20
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“Every three months of deployment delay can cost about $10 billion in revenue.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jensen Huang — GTC Berlin keynote, 2026-10-20</span></div> | Late 2020s | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“AI will come to feel more trustworthy—and it will remove the tells that let readers know they’re encountering AI slop in the wild.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Arvind Narayanan — Fortune interview on journalism and AI, 2026-10-06</span></div> | Open-ended, near term | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Doomsday discussions distract from harms already occurring.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Emily M. Bender — Bloomberg Technology interview, 2026-10-06</span></div> | Standing claim | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Instead of discussing faulty, unreliable systems, tech leaders are marketing their systems as all-knowing, superpowerful, superintelligent, and lobbying for self-policing and…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Timnit Gebru — Democracy Now! interview after the Right Livelihood Award, 2026-10-01</span></div> | Current policy cycle | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“Breathless claims about AGI and new capabilities fall apart pretty quickly under scrutiny.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Timnit Gebru — MIT Technology Review, with Emily M. Bender, 2026-09-22</span></div> | 2026 claim cycle | <span class="verdict" data-v="partial">Partly borne out</span> |
| <div><em>“I think that these models are the most potent cyber weapon that has ever been created, that we’ve ever seen. They are incredible at finding and exploiting vulnerabilities at scale.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Aidan Gomez — CNBC “The Tech Download”, 2026-09-14</span></div> | Present tense | <span class="verdict" data-v="partial">Partly borne out</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.