Orientation · Article 4 of 60
The difference between a quote and a summary
Why the ledger would rather have fewer records than a paraphrase presented as quotation.
A paraphrase is a small act of interpretation that becomes invisible the moment it is printed inside quotation marks. The ledger's rule is that a quotation is only a quotation if a document exists that a reader can open and compare.
Summaries are still useful: they record the shape of an argument that has no single sentence worth quoting. They are simply kept out of the evidence column, where they would borrow authority they have not earned.
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“Within the next 24 months, the majority of companies won’t just consume artificial intelligence. They will become AI builders, customizing, controlling, and running their own models.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Clément Delangue — Miami AI Summit, 2026-10-24</span></div> | By October 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I would hope we have the candidate for that in the next couple of years for the first like really major thing.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Sam Altman — Interview with Matthew Berman, 2026-10-21</span></div> | By October 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“It’s soon. I’m updating nearer and nearer.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Demis Hassabis — WSJ Magazine profile, 2026-10-21</span></div> | 2028 – 2029 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Every three months of deployment delay can cost about $10 billion in revenue.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jensen Huang — GTC Berlin keynote, 2026-10-20</span></div> | Late 2020s | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
The testIf you cannot point to the sentence a citation is supposed to support, there is no citation.
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.