Orientation · Article 3 of 60
Three kinds of record, one ledger
Cited claims, editorial summaries and photographs are three different things wearing the same clothes.
The ledger holds cited records and editorial summaries, and keeps them visibly apart. A cited record carries a verbatim quotation, the date it was said, a venue, and at least one document that establishes the words. An editorial summary carries a position without a quotation, a date or a citation, and is excluded from every verdict count.
The distinction matters because the two categories fail differently. A cited record can be checked against its source. An editorial summary can only be checked against the person's public record, which is a slower and more arguable test.
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“The next decade of progress is decided by whoever can afford to run experiments at scale, not by whoever has the best idea.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Greg Brockman — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Useful intelligence will be built by teams that tune models to people, not by leaderboards.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Mira Murati — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Capability gains keep compounding from compute and data until the curve itself becomes the strategy.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jakub Pachocki — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.