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What the ledger refuses to do

Five refusals that shape everything else on this site.

Snapshot 2026-10-25 240 claims 138 citations 209 people

The refusals are more informative than the features. They explain why the site looks the way it does, why some people have portraits and others have initials, and why the verdict column is quieter than a reader might expect.

Each refusal costs something visible. Taken together they are the reason a figure on this site can be trusted when it is inconvenient.

The costFewer records, fewer faces, fewer charts, and no early verdicts. A ledger that graded quickly would look better and mean less.

Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.