People & institutions · Article 24 of 60
Rights and scrutiny
The critics, and the claims that cost them the least to make and the most to check.
Critics make claims about harms, and harms are usually documented by the people experiencing them rather than by the institutions causing them. That asymmetry is why so many scrutiny claims sit in the contested column.
The ledger records the claim, not the moral. A harm predicted and then observed is validated; a harm predicted in a form that no data could capture is unfalsifiable, whoever said it.
| Person | Organisation | Group | Claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">EB</span><div><strong>Emily M. Bender</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Professor of linguistics · University of Washington</span></div></div> | University of Washington | Rights & scrutiny | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">TG</span><div><strong>Timnit Gebru</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Founder and executive director · Distributed AI Research Institute (DAIR)</span></div></div> | Distributed AI Research Institute (DAIR) | Rights & scrutiny | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">DH</span><div><strong>Dan Hendrycks</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Executive director · Center for AI Safety</span></div></div> | Center for AI Safety | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">DK</span><div><strong>Daniel Kokotajlo</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Researcher and writer · AI Futures Project</span></div></div> | AI Futures Project | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">DA</span><div><strong>Daron Acemoglu</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Professor · MIT</span></div></div> | MIT | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">EY</span><div><strong>Eliezer Yudkowsky</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Senior researcher · Machine Intelligence Research Institute</span></div></div> | Machine Intelligence Research Institute | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">GM</span><div><strong>Gary Marcus</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Professor emeritus · NYU</span></div></div> | NYU | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">JH</span><div><strong>Jeremy Howard</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Cofounder · fast.ai</span></div></div> | fast.ai | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">JB</span><div><strong>Joy Buolamwini</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Founder · Algorithmic Justice League</span></div></div> | Algorithmic Justice League | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">KC</span><div><strong>Kate Crawford</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Professor and author · USC Annenberg</span></div></div> | USC Annenberg | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">LA</span><div><strong>Leopold Aschenbrenner</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Writer · Situational Awareness</span></div></div> | Situational Awareness | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">MT</span><div><strong>Max Tegmark</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Professor · MIT</span></div></div> | MIT | Rights & scrutiny | 1 |
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“Instead of discussing faulty, unreliable systems, tech leaders are marketing their systems as all-knowing, superpowerful, superintelligent, and lobbying for self-policing and…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Timnit Gebru — Democracy Now! interview after the Right Livelihood Award, 2026-10-01</span></div> | Current policy cycle | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“The practical utility of very long-horizon agent tasks, especially relative to their token cost, is overhyped.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Andrew Ng — DeepLearning.AI essay series on coding agents, 2026-09-04</span></div> | Through 2027 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“Going forward, people will have to think about the value-add at the application level.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Robin Li (Li Yanhong) — TIME interview; Baidu World remarks, 2026-08-04</span></div> | Through the decade | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“The ChatGPT moment for physical AI is here, when machines begin to understand, reason and act in the real world.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jensen Huang — CES 2026 keynote, 2026-01-06</span></div> | From 2026 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“I know that it’s going to work in the next six months or 12 months or, maybe worst case, 18 months. It is already superhuman.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Mustafa Suleyman — Bloomberg Weekend interview, 2025-12-12</span></div> | By mid-2027 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“Is the belief really: “Oh, it’s so big, but if you had 100x more, everything would be so different?” It would be different, for sure. But is the belief that if you just 100x the scale,…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Ilya Sutskever — Dwarkesh Podcast, 2025-11-25</span></div> | Open-ended, from 2025 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.