People & institutions · Article 20 of 60
The multilaterals: IMF, World Bank, WTO, UN, ECB
Five institutions whose forecasts are also their instruments of persuasion.
Multilateral leaders publish numbers that are meant to change behaviour. A fund's estimate of AI's effect on productivity is simultaneously an economic projection and an argument for investment, and a reader who treats it as a neutral forecast will be misled by the direction of the emphasis.
The ledger records these claims with the condition attached: which adoption scenario, which decade, which measure. Where the condition is dropped in retelling, the record stays open.
Christine Lagarde
President · European Central Bank
Productivity from AI will show up in wages before it shows up in prices.
1 claims recorded · 0 graded · 1 still open
Photograph: Lemrich / European Central Bank — Attribution — © European Union
“ECB staff estimate that AI could raise euro area productivity growth by around 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points per year over the next decade under a scenario of swift and broad adoption. Under slower adoption, the estimated effect would be roughly half the size.”
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“The practical utility of very long-horizon agent tasks, especially relative to their token cost, is overhyped.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Andrew Ng — DeepLearning.AI essay series on coding agents, 2026-09-04</span></div> | Through 2027 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“In the short term, core users will consist of technology-sensitive early adopters… the medium term will see rapid adoption among knowledge workers… Looking further ahead, embodied AI…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Yang Zhilin (Zhilin Yang) — Zhongguancun Forum 2026 — as paraphrased by China AI Daily (not a direct transcript), 2026-07-01</span></div> | Phased, no end date | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“We’re still doing the super foundational. … Finance will come.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Aidan Gomez — Kleiner Perkins “Grit” podcast, 2025-11-19</span></div> | Open-ended | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Dario Amodei — Axios interview; restated in “The Adolescence of Technology”, 2025-05-28</span></div> | 2025 – 2030 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I would guess sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we’ll reach the point where most of the code that’s going towards these efforts is written by AI. And I don’t mean like autocomplete.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Mark Zuckerberg — Dwarkesh Patel podcast interview, 2025-04-29</span></div> | By October 2026 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.