People & institutions · Article 21 of 60
The frontier labs
The people whose sentences move markets before any product does.
Lab leaders are the most quoted group in the collection, and the least likely to be graded on schedule: their claims tend to be about capability arriving, which is a state that can always be described as nearly here.
The ledger does not discount them for that. It records the horizon they offered, or records that they offered none.
| Person | Organisation | Group | Claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">SA</span><div><strong>Sam Altman</strong><br /><span class="tiny">CEO and cofounder · OpenAI</span></div></div> | OpenAI | Frontier labs | 5 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">EM</span><div><strong>Elon Musk</strong><br /><span class="tiny">xAI founder; SpaceX CEO · xAI / Grok (within SpaceX)</span></div></div> | xAI / Grok (within SpaceX) | Frontier labs | 4 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">DA</span><div><strong>Dario Amodei</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Cofounder and CEO · Anthropic</span></div></div> | Anthropic | Frontier labs | 3 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">DH</span><div><strong>Demis Hassabis</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Chair, Google DeepMind; Alphabet chief scientist · Google DeepMind</span></div></div> | Google DeepMind | Frontier labs | 3 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">IS</span><div><strong>Ilya Sutskever</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Cofounder and CEO · Safe Superintelligence (SSI)</span></div></div> | Safe Superintelligence (SSI) | Frontier labs | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">MZ</span><div><strong>Mark Zuckerberg</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Founder, chairman and CEO · Meta</span></div></div> | Meta | Frontier labs | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">MS</span><div><strong>Mustafa Suleyman</strong><br /><span class="tiny">CEO, Microsoft AI · Microsoft AI</span></div></div> | Microsoft AI | Frontier labs | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">SP</span><div><strong>Sundar Pichai</strong><br /><span class="tiny">CEO · Google and Alphabet</span></div></div> | Google and Alphabet | Frontier labs | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">ZY</span><div><strong>Yang Zhilin (Zhilin Yang)</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Cofounder and CEO · Moonshot AI / Kimi</span></div></div> | Moonshot AI / Kimi | Frontier labs | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AM</span><div><strong>Aleksander Madry</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Safety researcher · OpenAI</span></div></div> | OpenAI | Frontier labs | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AA</span><div><strong>Amanda Askell</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Philosopher and alignment researcher · Anthropic</span></div></div> | Anthropic | Frontier labs | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AB</span><div><strong>Andrew Bosworth</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Chief technology officer · Meta</span></div></div> | Meta | Frontier labs | 1 |
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“It’s soon. I’m updating nearer and nearer.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Demis Hassabis — WSJ Magazine profile, 2026-10-21</span></div> | 2028 – 2029 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Breathless claims about AGI and new capabilities fall apart pretty quickly under scrutiny.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Timnit Gebru — MIT Technology Review, with Emily M. Bender, 2026-09-22</span></div> | 2026 claim cycle | <span class="verdict" data-v="partial">Partly borne out</span> |
| <div><em>“Of course I want to do AGI. This is the only meaningful thing to do over the next ten years.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Yang Zhilin (Zhilin Yang) — TIME100 AI profile, 2026-08-27</span></div> | By 2036 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“In my mind, I thought it was coming in four years instead of 10 years.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Masayoshi Son — Public remarks, reported June 2026, 2026-06-06</span></div> | By mid-2030 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“It seems hard to rule out even shorter [timelines]. Is there 1% chance of this happening in six, nine months? Yeah, that seems pretty plausible.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Beth Barnes — 80,000 Hours interview, 2026-06-05</span></div> | By 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.