Time & horizons · Article 30 of 60
Due in the next year
The calendar view of the ledger, and the work it implies.
A prediction ledger is a maintenance obligation. Every dated claim that passes without a verdict is a small failure of the archive, and the only defence is to know what is coming.
This is the list the ledger watches: everything dated within a year of the snapshot, in the order it expires.
| Person | Claim | Due | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Zuckerberg | <em>“By roughly October 2026, most code written for Meta’s AI efforts is authored by AI agents.”</em> | 2026-10-29 | 4 |
| Sundar Pichai | <em>“Within roughly a year, AI agents will routinely act on a user’s behalf for high-stakes decisions.”</em> | 2026-12-07 | 43 |
| Elon Musk | <em>“AGI — AI smarter than any human — arrives by the end of 2026, “no later than next year”.”</em> | 2026-12-31 | 67 |
| Mustafa Suleyman | <em>“AI systems are already superhuman in the tasks that matter, with agentic reliability arriving within 6–18 months.”</em> | 2027-06-12 | 230 |
| Jan Leike | <em>“The core technical challenges of aligning superintelligence would be solved by mid-2027, with 20% of OpenAI’s compute.”</em> | 2027-07-05 | 253 |
| Narendra Modi | <em>“Ten million young Indians receive AI skills training within one year — by August 2027.”</em> | 2027-08-15 | 294 |
| Person | Claim | Due | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Zuckerberg | <em>“By roughly October 2026, most code written for Meta’s AI efforts is authored by AI agents.”</em> | 2026-10-29 | 4 |
| Sundar Pichai | <em>“Within roughly a year, AI agents will routinely act on a user’s behalf for high-stakes decisions.”</em> | 2026-12-07 | 43 |
| Elon Musk | <em>“AGI — AI smarter than any human — arrives by the end of 2026, “no later than next year”.”</em> | 2026-12-31 | 67 |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.