Evidence · Article 42 of 60
The verdict vocabulary
Six words, each with a definition that can be argued with.
The verdicts are deliberately few: validated, partly borne out, contested, missed, open, unfalsifiable. Each has a written definition, and each verdict note says which evidence produced it.
A small vocabulary is a constraint on the grader. With only six words, the temptation to invent a flattering shade disappears.
| Verdict | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Validated | Independent evidence shows the claim held |
| Partly borne out | The direction held, the magnitude did not |
| Contested | Evidence points both ways, or the measure is disputed |
| Missed | The horizon passed without the claim holding |
| Open | The clock has not run out |
| Unfalsifiable | No evidence could settle it as written |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.