Standing rules · Article 59 of 60

The question the ledger cannot answer

Whether any of it is going to happen.

A ledger of predictions is not a forecast. It records who said what, with what horizon, and what has since been shown. It has no view on which futures are likely, and the day it starts offering one it stops being evidence.

What it can do is make disagreements legible: two people, one year, opposite claims, both on the record. That is more useful than a consensus, which is usually just an average of whoever was asked.

The ledger does not predict. It remembers who did.The Prediction Ledger, front page

Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.