Domains · Article 13 of 60
Robotics and space: machines that act
Claims that have to survive contact with gravity and maintenance schedules.
The smallest domain, and the one where the gap between a demonstration video and a deployed fleet is widest. Robotics claims age quickly because the hardware that ships is always less capable than the hardware that was filmed.
Space adds an unarguable referee: launch windows. A claim about a date in orbit is either met or not, which makes this domain unusually clean to grade when the date arrives.
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“Within three years, robots will surpass surgeons.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Elon Musk — Podcast interview recorded December 2025, 2026-01-07</span></div> | By 2029 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“The ChatGPT moment for physical AI is here, when machines begin to understand, reason and act in the real world.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jensen Huang — CES 2026 keynote, 2026-01-06</span></div> | From 2026 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“Spatial intelligence will transform how we create and interact with real and virtual worlds—revolutionizing storytelling, creativity, robotics, scientific discovery, and beyond. This is…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Fei-Fei Li — Essay, “From Words to Worlds”, 2025-11-10</span></div> | Open-ended | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“I think the coming years could be the “decade of robotics”.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Yann LeCun — Davos remarks, reported by TechCrunch, 2025-01-23</span></div> | 2025 – 2030 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Robotics will follow language models: a general policy trained broadly beats hand-engineered control.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Wojciech Zaremba — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Agents that act in the physical world will arrive through warehouses before homes.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Rohit Prasad — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Voice and vision in the home will be normal before humanoid labour is.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">David Limp — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Glasses and headsets will carry the assistant, because hands-free is the only interface that scales.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Andrew Bosworth — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| Person | Said on | Due | Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geoffrey Hinton | 2024-12-27 | 2054-12-27 | 10957 |
| Geoffrey Hinton | 2025-08-13 | 2045-08-13 | 7305 |
| Masayoshi Son | 2024-06-21 | 2035-12-31 | 4210 |
| Sam Altman | 2024-09-23 | 2035-08-16 | 3979 |
| Christine Lagarde | 2026-09-28 | 2036-12-31 | 3747 |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.