Domains · Article 15 of 60
Policy and governance: who can require a different outcome
The domain where a sentence becomes a statute, and the slowest clock in the collection.
Policy claims are made by people with the power to make them true, which makes them a different kind of record from a founder's forecast. When a minister says a number will be reached by a year, the number is usually attached to a budget.
That does not make policy claims reliable, only checkable. The ledger holds government records separately from industry ones and counts how many are genuinely cited.
Government people
35
Government cited
7
Policy claims
43
Graded
20
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“AI will come to feel more trustworthy—and it will remove the tells that let readers know they’re encountering AI slop in the wild.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Arvind Narayanan — Fortune interview on journalism and AI, 2026-10-06</span></div> | Open-ended, near term | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Doomsday discussions distract from harms already occurring.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Emily M. Bender — Bloomberg Technology interview, 2026-10-06</span></div> | Standing claim | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Instead of discussing faulty, unreliable systems, tech leaders are marketing their systems as all-knowing, superpowerful, superintelligent, and lobbying for self-policing and…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Timnit Gebru — Democracy Now! interview after the Right Livelihood Award, 2026-10-01</span></div> | Current policy cycle | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“Compute governance is the only lever that can be pulled quickly enough to matter.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jack Clark — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“The productivity gains are real but the distribution is political, and policy will decide who gets them.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">James Manyika — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“The only stable outcome is a treaty regime for frontier capability.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Max Tegmark — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Surveillance business models are the default of AI deployment, and privacy must be structural.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Meredith Whittaker — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
| <div><em>“Automation of cognitive work requires new institutions for income, not just retraining.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Anton Korinek — Editorial summary</span></div> | Standing position | <span class="verdict" data-v="unrated">Unrated</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.