Evidence · Article 40 of 60
Falsifiable claims
The records that could be shown to be wrong, and how they differ from the rest.
Falsifiability is stored as a boolean in the dataset, which makes it look simpler than it is. The field records whether the claim names a state of the world that evidence could contradict, not whether such evidence exists today.
A claim can be falsifiable and ungraded forever, because the data that would settle it was never collected. That is a fact about the claim's ambition, not a licence to grade it by impression.
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“Within the next 24 months, the majority of companies won’t just consume artificial intelligence. They will become AI builders, customizing, controlling, and running their own models.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Clément Delangue — Miami AI Summit, 2026-10-24</span></div> | By October 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I would hope we have the candidate for that in the next couple of years for the first like really major thing.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Sam Altman — Interview with Matthew Berman, 2026-10-21</span></div> | By October 2028 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“It’s soon. I’m updating nearer and nearer.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Demis Hassabis — WSJ Magazine profile, 2026-10-21</span></div> | 2028 – 2029 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Every three months of deployment delay can cost about $10 billion in revenue.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Jensen Huang — GTC Berlin keynote, 2026-10-20</span></div> | Late 2020s | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“AI will come to feel more trustworthy—and it will remove the tells that let readers know they’re encountering AI slop in the wild.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Arvind Narayanan — Fortune interview on journalism and AI, 2026-10-06</span></div> | Open-ended, near term | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“Doomsday discussions distract from harms already occurring.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Emily M. Bender — Bloomberg Technology interview, 2026-10-06</span></div> | Standing claim | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| Group | Validated | Partly borne out | Contested | Missed | Open | Unfalsifiable | Unrated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier labs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Science & robotics | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Compute & capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Researchers & evaluation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rights & scrutiny | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Capital allocators | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Policy & statecraft | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Enterprise & deployment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Governments & states | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.