Domains · Article 11 of 60
Work and labour: whose job, exactly
The largest human-stakes domain, and the one where 'jobs' hides the most.
Claims about work usually name a category rather than a task: jobs, roles, headcount, hiring. Those categories are exactly where a claim can survive by being vague, which is why the ledger asks what metric would settle it before it grades anything.
Where a claim names a number and a date, it is one of the easiest things in the collection to check. Where it names a mood, it stays open forever.
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“The practical utility of very long-horizon agent tasks, especially relative to their token cost, is overhyped.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Andrew Ng — DeepLearning.AI essay series on coding agents, 2026-09-04</span></div> | Through 2027 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“In the short term, core users will consist of technology-sensitive early adopters… the medium term will see rapid adoption among knowledge workers… Looking further ahead, embodied AI…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Yang Zhilin (Zhilin Yang) — Zhongguancun Forum 2026 — as paraphrased by China AI Daily (not a direct transcript), 2026-07-01</span></div> | Phased, no end date | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“We’re still doing the super foundational. … Finance will come.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Aidan Gomez — Kleiner Perkins “Grit” podcast, 2025-11-19</span></div> | Open-ended | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Dario Amodei — Axios interview; restated in “The Adolescence of Technology”, 2025-05-28</span></div> | 2025 – 2030 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I would guess sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we’ll reach the point where most of the code that’s going towards these efforts is written by AI. And I don’t mean like autocomplete.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Mark Zuckerberg — Dwarkesh Patel podcast interview, 2025-04-29</span></div> | By October 2026 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Dario Amodei — Council on Foreign Relations, CEO Speaker Series, 2025-03-10</span></div> | 90% by Sept 2025 · ~all by Mar 2026 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“Probably in 2025, we at Meta, as well as the other companies that are basically working on this, are going to have an AI that can effectively be a sort of midlevel engineer that you have…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Mark Zuckerberg — The Joe Rogan Experience, 2025-01-10</span></div> | By end of 2025 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and materially change the output of companies.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Sam Altman — Blog post, “Reflections”, 2025-01-05</span></div> | By 31 December 2025 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| Person | Organisation | Group | Claims |
|---|---|---|---|
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AN</span><div><strong>Andrew Ng</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Founder, DeepLearning.AI; managing GP, AI Fund · DeepLearning.AI</span></div></div> | DeepLearning.AI | Researchers & evaluation | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">DA</span><div><strong>Dario Amodei</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Cofounder and CEO · Anthropic</span></div></div> | Anthropic | Frontier labs | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">MZ</span><div><strong>Mark Zuckerberg</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Founder, chairman and CEO · Meta</span></div></div> | Meta | Frontier labs | 2 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AG</span><div><strong>Aidan Gomez</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Cofounder and CEO · Cohere</span></div></div> | Cohere | Compute & capital | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AW</span><div><strong>Alexandr Wang</strong><br /><span class="tiny">Founder · Scale AI</span></div></div> | Scale AI | Enterprise & deployment | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AG</span><div><strong>Ali Ghodsi</strong><br /><span class="tiny">CEO · Databricks</span></div></div> | Databricks | Enterprise & deployment | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AM</span><div><strong>Amjad Masad</strong><br /><span class="tiny">CEO · Replit</span></div></div> | Replit | Enterprise & deployment | 1 |
| <div class="person"><span class="face sigil" aria-hidden="true">AK</span><div><strong>Arvind Krishna</strong><br /><span class="tiny">CEO · IBM</span></div></div> | IBM | Enterprise & deployment | 1 |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.