Orientation · Article 1 of 60

The six numbers on the front page

What the ledger counts, and what each count is actually counting.

Snapshot 2026-10-25 240 claims 138 citations 209 people

The front page of the ledger shows a handful of figures and no verdicts. That is deliberate. A dataset about predictions is only as honest as its vocabulary, so before any claim is read, the reader should know what each number means and which of them can move.

Predictions and citations are counts of records. People is a count of identities. Dated horizons is the only number that says how much of the collection can ever be checked against a calendar, and it is much smaller than the total.

Predictions
240
People
209
Citations
138
Dated horizons
41
Graded
20
Photographs
32
Open-ended199
Exact date27
Range13
Deadline1
Horizon kinds across the whole ledger. An open-ended claim can be argued about but never scored against a date.
The count that matters leastA large number of predictions is not evidence of anything except effort. The number that constrains the ledger is the dated set: those are the claims whose clocks can actually run out.

Every other article in this room drills into one of these columns. None of them adds to the total.

Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.