Worked examples · Article 47 of 60
Worked example: Georgieva's 60/40
A forecast split that is also a warning, and how a condition changes a claim.
The managing director of the IMF described a labour market in which most jobs are exposed to AI and a smaller share is likely to be complemented by it. Stated as a pair of percentages at a venue, with a date, that is a checkable claim about exposure.
It is not a claim about job losses, and the ledger does not let the two collapse into each other.
Kristalina Georgieva
Managing Director · International Monetary Fund
AI will widen the gap between economies that can adopt it and those that cannot.
1 claims recorded · 0 graded · 1 still open
Photograph: World Bank Group / Grant Ellis — CC BY-SA 4.0
“We expect over the next years, in advanced economies, 60% of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or eliminated or transformed – 40% globally.”
| Claim | Horizon | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| <div><em>“The practical utility of very long-horizon agent tasks, especially relative to their token cost, is overhyped.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Andrew Ng — DeepLearning.AI essay series on coding agents, 2026-09-04</span></div> | Through 2027 | <span class="verdict" data-v="contested">Contested</span> |
| <div><em>“In the short term, core users will consist of technology-sensitive early adopters… the medium term will see rapid adoption among knowledge workers… Looking further ahead, embodied AI…”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Yang Zhilin (Zhilin Yang) — Zhongguancun Forum 2026 — as paraphrased by China AI Daily (not a direct transcript), 2026-07-01</span></div> | Phased, no end date | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“We’re still doing the super foundational. … Finance will come.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Aidan Gomez — Kleiner Perkins “Grit” podcast, 2025-11-19</span></div> | Open-ended | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Dario Amodei — Axios interview; restated in “The Adolescence of Technology”, 2025-05-28</span></div> | 2025 – 2030 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
| <div><em>“I would guess sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we’ll reach the point where most of the code that’s going towards these efforts is written by AI. And I don’t mean like autocomplete.”</em><br /><span class="tiny">Mark Zuckerberg — Dwarkesh Patel podcast interview, 2025-04-29</span></div> | By October 2026 | <span class="verdict" data-v="open">Open</span> |
Figures computed from docs/predictions/ledger.json at build time. Every claim quoted on this page carries its own sources in the ledger.